SMU Mustangs 74, Louisville Cardinals 88
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-31 · Winner: Louisville Cardinals
Louisville Cardinals defeated SMU Mustangs 88–74 on 2026-01-31 in NCAA Men's play, a 14-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at H2 7:41 swung win probability 48% → 99%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why SMU Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 47 | 27 | 74 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 44 | 44 | 88 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at H2 7:41 swung win probability 48% → 99%.
Why SMU Mustangs lost
- Lost H2 27-44 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at H2 7:41 (win probability 48% → 99% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 16-11.
- Outscored 16-6 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Cardinals | 8–0 | H2 12:29 | 45% → 89% |
| Louisville Cardinals | 10–0 | H2 7:41 | 48% → 99% |