North Carolina Tar Heels 85, Virginia Cavaliers 80
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-24 · Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Virginia Cavaliers 85–80 on 2026-01-24 in NCAA Men's play, a 5-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 1:38 swung win probability 76% → 0%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Virginia Cavaliers lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 34 | 51 | 85 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 43 | 37 | 80 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 1:38 swung win probability 76% → 0%.
Why Virginia Cavaliers lost
- Lost H2 37-51 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at H2 1:38 (win probability 76% → 0% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 11-4.
- Game was within 1 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 10–0 | H1 16:02 | 55% → 86% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 9–0 | H2 5:25 | 22% → 87% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 9–0 | H2 1:38 | 76% → 0% |