North Carolina Tar Heels 78, California Golden Bears 84
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-17 · Winner: California Golden Bears
California Golden Bears defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 84–78 on 2026-01-17 in NCAA Men's play, a 6-point result. A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 11:10 swung win probability 69% → 95%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why North Carolina Tar Heels lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 37 | 41 | 78 |
| California Golden Bears | 54 | 30 | 84 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 11:10 swung win probability 69% → 95%.
Why North Carolina Tar Heels lost
- Lost H1 37-54 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at H1 11:10 (win probability 69% → 95% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Golden Bears | 11–0 | H1 11:10 | 69% → 95% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 11–0 | H2 6:04 | 100% → 98% |