Virginia Cavaliers 79, Louisville Cardinals 70
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-13 · Winner: Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers defeated Louisville Cardinals 79–70 on 2026-01-13 in NCAA Men's play, a 9-point result. A 11-0 road team run ending at H1 16:35 swung win probability 51% → 15%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Louisville Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 33 | 46 | 79 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 28 | 42 | 70 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 road team run ending at H1 16:35 swung win probability 51% → 15%.
Why Louisville Cardinals lost
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at H1 16:35 (win probability 51% → 15% for the home side).
- Shot 43.3% eFG vs a 56.5% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 23-12 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 11–0 | H1 16:35 | 51% → 15% |
| Louisville Cardinals | 8–0 | H1 12:56 | 15% → 38% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 8–0 | H2 12:25 | 19% → 1% |