SMU Mustangs 75, Duke Blue Devils 82
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-10 · Winner: Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils defeated SMU Mustangs 82–75 on 2026-01-10 in NCAA Men's play, a 7-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at H1 7:58 swung win probability 49% → 85%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why SMU Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 35 | 40 | 75 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 41 | 41 | 82 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at H1 7:58 swung win probability 49% → 85%.
Why SMU Mustangs lost
- Lost H1 35-41 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at H1 7:58 (win probability 49% → 85% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 21-13.
- Outscored 21-8 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 9–0 | H1 17:36 | 55% → 24% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 10–0 | H1 7:58 | 49% → 85% |