North Carolina Tar Heels 83, SMU Mustangs 97
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: SMU Mustangs
SMU Mustangs defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 97–83 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 14-point result. A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 14:03 swung win probability 55% → 88%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why North Carolina Tar Heels lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 39 | 44 | 83 |
| SMU Mustangs | 39 | 58 | 97 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 14:03 swung win probability 55% → 88%.
Why North Carolina Tar Heels lost
- Lost H2 44-58 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at H1 14:03 (win probability 55% → 88% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 11–0 | H1 14:03 | 55% → 88% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8–0 | H1 4:50 | 82% → 50% |