Virginia Cavaliers 76, NC State Wolfpack 61
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers defeated NC State Wolfpack 76–61 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 15-point result. A 10-0 road team run ending at H1 5:30 swung win probability 30% → 4%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why NC State Wolfpack lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 40 | 36 | 76 |
| NC State Wolfpack | 20 | 41 | 61 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 road team run ending at H1 5:30 swung win probability 30% → 4%.
Why NC State Wolfpack lost
- Lost H1 20-40 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at H1 5:30 (win probability 30% → 4% for the home side).
- Shot 41.0% eFG vs a 55.0% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Cavaliers | 10–0 | H1 5:30 | 30% → 4% |
| NC State Wolfpack | 11–0 | H2 17:09 | 0% → 8% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 8–0 | H2 8:53 | 1% → 0% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 8–0 | H2 6:33 | 0% → 0% |
| NC State Wolfpack | 10–0 | H2 3:16 | 0% → 0% |