Florida State Seminoles 66, North Carolina Tar Heels 79
NCAA Men's · 2025-12-30 · Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels defeated Florida State Seminoles 79–66 on 2025-12-30 in NCAA Men's play, a 13-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at H1 12:10 swung win probability 46% → 81%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Florida State Seminoles lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State Seminoles | 34 | 32 | 66 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 40 | 39 | 79 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at H1 12:10 swung win probability 46% → 81%.
Why Florida State Seminoles lost
- Lost H2 32-39 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at H2 10:39 (win probability 83% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 43.9% eFG vs a 52.3% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 10–0 | H1 12:10 | 46% → 81% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 11–0 | H2 10:39 | 83% → 100% |