Central Arkansas Bears 82, SMU Mustangs 99
NCAA Men's · 2025-12-21 · Winner: SMU Mustangs
SMU Mustangs defeated Central Arkansas Bears 99–82 on 2025-12-21 in NCAA Men's play, a 17-point result. A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 15:02 swung win probability 75% → 96%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Central Arkansas Bears lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Arkansas Bears | 47 | 35 | 82 |
| SMU Mustangs | 51 | 48 | 99 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 15:02 swung win probability 75% → 96%.
Why Central Arkansas Bears lost
- Lost H2 35-48 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at H1 9:01 (win probability 82% → 99% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs | 11–0 | H1 15:02 | 75% → 96% |
| Central Arkansas Bears | 8–0 | H1 12:15 | 95% → 82% |
| SMU Mustangs | 13–0 | H1 9:01 | 82% → 99% |
| Central Arkansas Bears | 10–0 | H1 6:07 | 99% → 88% |
| SMU Mustangs | 10–0 | H2 15:08 | 88% → 100% |
| SMU Mustangs | 9–0 | H2 2:19 | 100% → 100% |