East Tennessee State Buccaneers 58, North Carolina Tar Heels 77
NCAA Men's · 2025-12-16 · Winner: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels defeated East Tennessee State Buccaneers 77–58 on 2025-12-16 in NCAA Men's play, a 19-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at H2 18:29 swung win probability 73% → 99%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why East Tennessee State Buccaneers lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| East Tennessee State Buccaneers | 30 | 28 | 58 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 38 | 39 | 77 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at H2 18:29 swung win probability 73% → 99%.
Why East Tennessee State Buccaneers lost
- Lost H2 28-39 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 15-0 run ending at H2 7:24 (win probability 99% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 45.2% eFG vs a 55.3% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 12–0 | H2 18:29 | 73% → 99% |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 15–0 | H2 7:24 | 99% → 100% |