Toledo Rockets 78, Central Michigan Chippewas 75
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: Toledo Rockets
Toledo Rockets defeated Central Michigan Chippewas 78–75 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 3-point result. A 17-0 home team run ending at H1 11:46 swung win probability 47% → 95%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Central Michigan Chippewas lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets | 31 | 47 | 78 |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 41 | 34 | 75 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 17-0 home team run ending at H1 11:46 swung win probability 47% → 95%.
Why Central Michigan Chippewas lost
- Lost H2 34-47 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at H1 6:48 (win probability 98% → 72% for the home side).
- Outscored 26-9 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 13-4.
- Game was within 2 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 17–0 | H1 11:46 | 47% → 95% |
| Toledo Rockets | 13–0 | H1 6:48 | 98% → 72% |
| Central Michigan Chippewas | 8–0 | H1 3:03 | 72% → 94% |