Florida State Seminoles 69, Dayton Flyers 97
NCAA Men's · 2025-12-16 · Winner: Dayton Flyers
Dayton Flyers defeated Florida State Seminoles 97–69 on 2025-12-16 in NCAA Men's play, a 28-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at H1 5:15 swung win probability 99% → 90%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Florida State Seminoles lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State Seminoles | 31 | 38 | 69 |
| Dayton Flyers | 42 | 55 | 97 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at H1 5:15 swung win probability 99% → 90%.
Why Florida State Seminoles lost
- Lost H2 38-55 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at H2 12:10 (win probability 98% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 43.1% eFG vs a 52.3% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 20-12.
- Outscored 40-19 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton Flyers | 8–0 | H1 7:26 | 91% → 99% |
| Florida State Seminoles | 9–0 | H1 5:15 | 99% → 90% |
| Dayton Flyers | 10–0 | H2 12:10 | 98% → 100% |