Mercer Bears 71, East Tennessee State Buccaneers 77
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
East Tennessee State Buccaneers defeated Mercer Bears 77–71 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 6-point result. A 14-0 home team run ending at H2 1:55 swung win probability 38% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Mercer Bears lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer Bears | 35 | 36 | 71 |
| East Tennessee State Buccaneers | 32 | 45 | 77 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 14-0 home team run ending at H2 1:55 swung win probability 38% → 100%.
Why Mercer Bears lost
- Lost H2 36-45 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 14-0 run ending at H2 1:55 (win probability 38% → 100% for the home side).
- Outscored 23-12 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 16-11.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercer Bears | 11–0 | H1 13:46 | 81% → 42% |
| East Tennessee State Buccaneers | 9–0 | H1 7:55 | 36% → 72% |
| Mercer Bears | 8–0 | H1 0:05 | 80% → 44% |
| East Tennessee State Buccaneers | 14–0 | H2 1:55 | 38% → 100% |