Samford Bulldogs 78, VMI Keydets 58
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-01 · Winner: Samford Bulldogs
Samford Bulldogs defeated VMI Keydets 78–58 on 2026-01-01 in NCAA Men's play, a 20-point result. A 24-0 road team run ending at H2 10:24 swung win probability 86% → 0%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why VMI Keydets lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samford Bulldogs | 34 | 44 | 78 |
| VMI Keydets | 36 | 22 | 58 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 24-0 road team run ending at H2 10:24 swung win probability 86% → 0%.
Why VMI Keydets lost
- Lost H2 22-44 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 24-0 run ending at H2 10:24 (win probability 86% → 0% for the home side).
- Shot 39.5% eFG vs a 49.0% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI Keydets | 8–0 | H1 11:57 | 50% → 79% |
| VMI Keydets | 8–0 | H1 5:48 | 64% → 90% |
| Samford Bulldogs | 24–0 | H2 10:24 | 86% → 0% |
| Samford Bulldogs | 10–0 | H2 4:09 | 0% → 0% |