Cal Poly Mustangs 104, Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners 79
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-29 · Winner: Cal Poly Mustangs
Cal Poly Mustangs defeated Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners 104–79 on 2026-01-29 in NCAA Men's play, a 25-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at H1 7:50 swung win probability 48% → 15%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 56 | 48 | 104 |
| Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners | 35 | 44 | 79 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at H1 7:50 swung win probability 48% → 15%.
Why Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners lost
- Lost H1 35-56 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at H2 8:37 (win probability 0% → 0% for the home side).
- Outscored 20-7 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 8–0 | H1 11:57 | 65% → 33% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 9–0 | H1 7:50 | 48% → 15% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 9–0 | H1 3:15 | 16% → 2% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 10–0 | H2 8:37 | 0% → 0% |