Cal Poly Mustangs 90, Cal State Northridge Matadors 95
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-08 · Winner: Cal State Northridge Matadors
Cal State Northridge Matadors defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 95–90 on 2026-01-08 in NCAA Men's play, a 5-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at H1 4:49 swung win probability 85% → 55%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 44 | 46 | 90 |
| Cal State Northridge Matadors | 41 | 54 | 95 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at H1 4:49 swung win probability 85% → 55%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost H2 46-54 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at H2 11:24 (win probability 2% → 20% for the home side).
- Beaten on the offensive glass 15-10.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 8–0 | H1 4:49 | 85% → 55% |
| Cal State Northridge Matadors | 8–0 | H2 11:24 | 2% → 20% |