Cal Poly Mustangs 66, Long Beach State Beach 74
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: Long Beach State Beach
Long Beach State Beach defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 74–66 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 8-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at H2 15:16 swung win probability 94% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 26 | 40 | 66 |
| Long Beach State Beach | 38 | 36 | 74 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at H2 15:16 swung win probability 94% → 100%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost H1 26-38 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at H2 15:16 (win probability 94% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 42.9% eFG vs a 51.9% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long Beach State Beach | 9–0 | H2 15:16 | 94% → 100% |
| Long Beach State Beach | 8–0 | H2 10:07 | 100% → 100% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 11–0 | H2 6:11 | 100% → 100% |