Cal Poly Mustangs 86, Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 75
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-19 · Winner: Cal Poly Mustangs
Cal Poly Mustangs defeated Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 86–75 on 2026-02-19 in NCAA Men's play, a 11-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 9:56 swung win probability 57% → 7%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 44 | 42 | 86 |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 35 | 40 | 75 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 9:56 swung win probability 57% → 7%.
Why Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors lost
- Lost H1 35-44 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at H2 9:56 (win probability 57% → 7% for the home side).
- Shot 40.8% eFG vs a 52.2% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 17-13.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 8–0 | H1 17:55 | 55% → 26% |
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 9–0 | H1 9:25 | 23% → 57% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 9–0 | H2 9:56 | 57% → 7% |