Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 86, Cal Poly Mustangs 66
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-15 · Winner: Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors defeated Cal Poly Mustangs 86–66 on 2026-01-15 in NCAA Men's play, a 20-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at H2 15:56 swung win probability 26% → 3%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Cal Poly Mustangs lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 41 | 45 | 86 |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 36 | 30 | 66 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at H2 15:56 swung win probability 26% → 3%.
Why Cal Poly Mustangs lost
- Lost H2 30-45 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at H2 15:56 (win probability 26% → 3% for the home side).
- Shot 45.9% eFG vs a 51.9% season average - a cold night.
- Lost the turnover battle 23-15.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 8–0 | H2 15:56 | 26% → 3% |