UC Davis Aggies 78, Cal Poly Mustangs 84
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-10 · Winner: Cal Poly Mustangs
Cal Poly Mustangs defeated UC Davis Aggies 84–78 on 2026-01-10 in NCAA Men's play, a 6-point result. A 8-0 road team run ending at H1 15:32 swung win probability 58% → 28%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why UC Davis Aggies lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis Aggies | 40 | 38 | 78 |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 30 | 54 | 84 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 8-0 road team run ending at H1 15:32 swung win probability 58% → 28%.
Why UC Davis Aggies lost
- Lost H2 38-54 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at H2 14:05 (win probability 6% → 34% for the home side).
- Outscored 26-17 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 2 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis Aggies | 8–0 | H1 15:32 | 58% → 28% |
| Cal Poly Mustangs | 8–0 | H2 14:05 | 6% → 34% |