Incarnate Word Cardinals 49, Northwestern State Demons 54
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-23 · Winner: Northwestern State Demons
Northwestern State Demons defeated Incarnate Word Cardinals 54–49 on 2026-02-23 in NCAA Men's play, a 5-point result. A 12-0 road team run ending at H2 19:25 swung win probability 64% → 11%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Incarnate Word Cardinals lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word Cardinals | 23 | 26 | 49 |
| Northwestern State Demons | 18 | 36 | 54 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 road team run ending at H2 19:25 swung win probability 64% → 11%.
Why Incarnate Word Cardinals lost
- Lost H2 26-36 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at H2 17:08 (win probability 11% → 53% for the home side).
- Shot 38.2% eFG vs a 52.1% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Word Cardinals | 12–0 | H2 19:25 | 64% → 11% |
| Northwestern State Demons | 10–0 | H2 17:08 | 11% → 53% |