Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 58, Arkansas State Red Wolves 81
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-27 · Winner: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State Red Wolves defeated Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 81–58 on 2026-02-27 in NCAA Men's play, a 23-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at H2 16:37 swung win probability 98% → 100%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 22 | 36 | 58 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 37 | 44 | 81 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at H2 16:37 swung win probability 98% → 100%.
Why Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns lost
- Lost H1 22-37 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at H2 16:37 (win probability 98% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 35.9% eFG vs a 47.1% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 12–0 | H2 16:37 | 98% → 100% |
| Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 9–0 | H2 14:10 | 100% → 100% |
| Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | 8–0 | H2 6:43 | 100% → 100% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 10–0 | H2 3:08 | 100% → 100% |