South Alabama Jaguars 92, Arkansas State Red Wolves 88
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-14 · Winner: South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama Jaguars defeated Arkansas State Red Wolves 92–88 on 2026-02-14 in NCAA Men's play, a 4-point result. A 16-0 home team run ending at H1 9:41 swung win probability 34% → 86%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars | 32 | 51 | 9 | 92 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 41 | 42 | 5 | 88 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 16-0 home team run ending at H1 9:41 swung win probability 34% → 86%.
Why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost
- Lost H2 42-51 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at H2 2:46 (win probability 100% → 71% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 18-5.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars | 11–0 | H1 15:23 | 72% → 34% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 16–0 | H1 9:41 | 34% → 86% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 10–0 | H2 7:45 | 91% → 100% |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 12–0 | H2 2:46 | 100% → 71% |