Arkansas State Red Wolves 74, Troy Trojans 99
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-17 · Winner: Troy Trojans
Troy Trojans defeated Arkansas State Red Wolves 99–74 on 2026-01-17 in NCAA Men's play, a 25-point result. A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 9:25 swung win probability 50% → 87%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 35 | 39 | 74 |
| Troy Trojans | 44 | 55 | 99 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 11-0 home team run ending at H1 9:25 swung win probability 50% → 87%.
Why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost
- Lost H2 39-55 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at H1 9:25 (win probability 50% → 87% for the home side).
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans | 11–0 | H1 9:25 | 50% → 87% |
| Troy Trojans | 8–0 | H1 4:22 | 76% → 95% |
| Troy Trojans | 11–0 | H2 5:59 | 100% → 100% |