Arkansas State Red Wolves 87, South Alabama Jaguars 91
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-15 · Winner: South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama Jaguars defeated Arkansas State Red Wolves 91–87 on 2026-01-15 in NCAA Men's play, a 4-point result. A 13-0 home team run ending at H2 12:53 swung win probability 40% → 92%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 36 | 45 | 6 | 87 |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 32 | 49 | 10 | 91 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 13-0 home team run ending at H2 12:53 swung win probability 40% → 92%.
Why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost
- Gave up a 13-0 run ending at H2 12:53 (win probability 40% → 92% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 19-5.
- Outscored 21-12 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars | 9–0 | H1 12:10 | 48% → 78% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 8–0 | H1 7:32 | 78% → 49% |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 13–0 | H2 12:53 | 40% → 92% |