Troy Trojans 74, Arkansas State Red Wolves 86
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-07 · Winner: Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State Red Wolves defeated Troy Trojans 86–74 on 2026-01-07 in NCAA Men's play, a 12-point result. A 12-0 home team run ending at H1 4:31 swung win probability 52% → 92%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Troy Trojans lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans | 32 | 42 | 74 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 45 | 41 | 86 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 home team run ending at H1 4:31 swung win probability 52% → 92%.
Why Troy Trojans lost
- Lost H1 32-45 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at H1 4:31 (win probability 52% → 92% for the home side).
- Outscored 22-11 at the free-throw line.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 10–0 | H1 13:06 | 51% → 84% |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 12–0 | H1 4:31 | 52% → 92% |