South Alabama Jaguars 49, Troy Trojans 59
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: Troy Trojans
Troy Trojans defeated South Alabama Jaguars 59–49 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 10-point result. A 12-0 road team run ending at H2 8:34 swung win probability 100% → 83%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why South Alabama Jaguars lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama Jaguars | 23 | 26 | 49 |
| Troy Trojans | 30 | 29 | 59 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 12-0 road team run ending at H2 8:34 swung win probability 100% → 83%.
Why South Alabama Jaguars lost
- Lost H1 23-30 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 11-0 run ending at H2 17:48 (win probability 87% → 100% for the home side).
- Shot 35.0% eFG vs a 52.9% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans | 11–0 | H2 17:48 | 87% → 100% |
| South Alabama Jaguars | 12–0 | H2 8:34 | 100% → 83% |