James Madison Dukes 78, Arkansas State Red Wolves 74
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: James Madison Dukes
James Madison Dukes defeated Arkansas State Red Wolves 78–74 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 4-point result. A 14-0 road team run ending at H2 12:24 swung win probability 91% → 21%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison Dukes | 39 | 39 | 78 |
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 34 | 40 | 74 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 14-0 road team run ending at H2 12:24 swung win probability 91% → 21%.
Why Arkansas State Red Wolves lost
- Gave up a 14-0 run ending at H2 12:24 (win probability 91% → 21% for the home side).
- Shot 41.4% eFG vs a 52.6% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | 8–0 | H1 11:34 | 65% → 89% |
| James Madison Dukes | 11–0 | H1 5:34 | 91% → 56% |
| James Madison Dukes | 14–0 | H2 12:24 | 91% → 21% |