Auburn Tigers 85, Mississippi State Bulldogs 91
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-18 · Winner: Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs defeated Auburn Tigers 91–85 on 2026-02-18 in NCAA Men's play, a 6-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 3:56 swung win probability 73% → 3%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Auburn Tigers lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn Tigers | 33 | 52 | 85 |
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 49 | 42 | 91 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at H2 3:56 swung win probability 73% → 3%.
Why Auburn Tigers lost
- Lost H1 33-49 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 12-0 run ending at H1 12:09 (win probability 72% → 96% for the home side).
- Shot 48.4% eFG vs a 53.0% season average - a cold night.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | 12–0 | H1 12:09 | 72% → 96% |
| Auburn Tigers | 9–0 | H1 9:18 | 96% → 82% |
| Auburn Tigers | 8–0 | H2 16:21 | 100% → 95% |
| Auburn Tigers | 9–0 | H2 12:04 | 96% → 69% |
| Auburn Tigers | 9–0 | H2 3:56 | 73% → 3% |