Tarleton State Texans 55, California Baptist Lancers 56
NCAA Men's · 2026-02-05 · Winner: California Baptist Lancers
California Baptist Lancers defeated Tarleton State Texans 56–55 on 2026-02-05 in NCAA Men's play, a 1-point result. A 14-0 home team run ending at H2 6:34 swung win probability 11% → 90%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Tarleton State Texans lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarleton State Texans | 30 | 25 | 55 |
| California Baptist Lancers | 28 | 28 | 56 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 14-0 home team run ending at H2 6:34 swung win probability 11% → 90%.
Why Tarleton State Texans lost
- Gave up a 14-0 run ending at H2 6:34 (win probability 11% → 90% for the home side).
- Outscored 16-5 at the free-throw line.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 20-4.
- Game was within 5 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarleton State Texans | 8–0 | H2 15:16 | 53% → 12% |
| California Baptist Lancers | 14–0 | H2 6:34 | 11% → 90% |