California Baptist Lancers 76, Tarleton State Texans 81
NCAA Men's · 2026-01-03 · Winner: Tarleton State Texans
Tarleton State Texans defeated California Baptist Lancers 81–76 on 2026-01-03 in NCAA Men's play, a 5-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at H1 8:20 swung win probability 69% → 34%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why California Baptist Lancers lost.
Linescore
| H1 | H2 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Baptist Lancers | 28 | 36 | 12 | 76 |
| Tarleton State Texans | 29 | 35 | 17 | 81 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at H1 8:20 swung win probability 69% → 34%.
Why California Baptist Lancers lost
- Gave up a 8-0 run ending at H1 0:35 (win probability 40% → 72% for the home side).
- Lost the turnover battle 21-14.
- Outscored 29-13 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 0 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Baptist Lancers | 9–0 | H1 8:20 | 69% → 34% |
| Tarleton State Texans | 8–0 | H1 0:35 | 40% → 72% |