Toronto Raptors 106, Miami Heat 96
NBA · 2025-12-15 · Winner: Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors defeated Miami Heat 106–96 on 2025-12-15 in NBA play, a 10-point result. A 9-0 road team run ending at Q4 9:50 swung win probability 84% → 26%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Miami Heat lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 23 | 23 | 28 | 32 | 106 |
| Miami Heat | 22 | 30 | 25 | 19 | 96 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 road team run ending at Q4 9:50 swung win probability 84% → 26%.
Why Miami Heat lost
- Lost Q4 19-32 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 10-0 run ending at Q2 6:04 (win probability 88% → 56% for the home side).
- Shot 47.6% eFG vs a 54.2% season average - a cold night.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 14–0 | Q2 8:48 | 46% → 90% |
| Toronto Raptors | 10–0 | Q2 6:04 | 88% → 56% |
| Miami Heat | 9–0 | Q3 0:36 | 31% → 82% |
| Toronto Raptors | 9–0 | Q4 9:50 | 84% → 26% |
| Toronto Raptors | 8–0 | Q4 7:31 | 39% → 2% |