Miami Heat 95, Toronto Raptors 121
NBA · 2026-04-07 · Winner: Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors defeated Miami Heat 121–95 on 2026-04-07 in NBA play, a 26-point result. A 9-0 home team run ending at Q2 7:23 swung win probability 49% → 81%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Miami Heat lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 27 | 24 | 25 | 19 | 95 |
| Toronto Raptors | 32 | 32 | 30 | 27 | 121 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 9-0 home team run ending at Q2 7:23 swung win probability 49% → 81%.
Why Miami Heat lost
- Lost Q2 24-32 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q2 7:23 (win probability 49% → 81% for the home side).
- Shot 42.9% eFG vs a 54.2% season average - a cold night.
- Beaten on the offensive glass 15-10.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors | 8–0 | Q1 8:32 | 58% → 81% |
| Toronto Raptors | 9–0 | Q2 7:23 | 49% → 81% |
| Toronto Raptors | 8–0 | Q4 10:49 | 99% → 100% |