Denver Nuggets 106, Toronto Raptors 103
NBA · 2025-12-31 · Winner: Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets defeated Toronto Raptors 106–103 on 2025-12-31 in NBA play, a 3-point result. A 10-0 home team run ending at Q4 9:16 swung win probability 10% → 68%. Below is the quarter-by-quarter linescore, a win-probability timeline, and an automated breakdown of why Toronto Raptors lost.
Linescore
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 32 | 31 | 22 | 21 | 106 |
| Toronto Raptors | 23 | 31 | 25 | 24 | 103 |
Win probability
Turning point — A 10-0 home team run ending at Q4 9:16 swung win probability 10% → 68%.
Why Toronto Raptors lost
- Lost Q1 23-32 - the worst stretch of the game.
- Gave up a 9-0 run ending at Q1 5:45 (win probability 61% → 30% for the home side).
- Shot 43.0% eFG vs a 54.6% season average - a cold night.
- Outscored 28-17 at the free-throw line.
- Game was within 3 with 5:00 left - lost the closing stretch.
Scoring runs
| Team | Run | Ends | Win-prob swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 9–0 | Q1 5:45 | 61% → 30% |
| Toronto Raptors | 9–0 | Q3 10:24 | 18% → 56% |
| Denver Nuggets | 9–0 | Q4 11:54 | 60% → 11% |
| Toronto Raptors | 10–0 | Q4 9:16 | 10% → 68% |